CME bitcoin futures showed a gap of $ 800, followed by a fall after opening $ 1,000 on Sunday. Over the weekend, a gap of $ 1,800 (-15.51%) formed, resulting in the value of bitcoin futures falling from $ 11,990 to $ 9,915.
These gaps play an important role in predicting the movement of spot prices, since each of them eventually fills up. Taking into account the weekly closure on July 14, the situation for Bitcoin is not very good, because, if we evaluate the chart by the candles, this time the weekly candle was literally bleeding (-24%).
As mentioned earlier, the price of Bitcoin should reveal all areas of potential price formation for buyers and sellers.
To date, the gaps that have been formed have been successfully filled, with the exception of the gap formed on June 15 and 16, from $ 9,055 to $ 8,495. And before Bitcoin sinks to this minimum, there is a resistance of $ 9,915 in front of us, which was held for more than 20 days and tested 3 times.
If bears break through this level, the likelihood that the price will drop is very high.
The total number of CME bitcoin futures open positions as of June 9 is 6,075. Interestingly, the positions “other reporting” and “credit funds” are shorts.
“Checking #COT data … hedge funds and large financial managers are pretty neutral. Banks are all in shorts. Watch out for $ 9,000 for break-even . Shorters have enough maneuvers to play, but I would not act on a bear scenario.
If the above bearish scenario is not implemented, BTC can continue to grow to eliminate the gap formed on July 13-14, which is currently the largest.
Scenario 1: Price breaks through resistance at $ 9,915, going somewhere in the range of $ 9,068 to $ 8,503.
Scenario 2: Price overcomes resistance, bounces off of it and fills a gap between $ 11,990 and $ 10,945.